Without the benefit of a fail-safe crystal ball, we can only follow what economists predict and look at historical trends to predict the future of moving companies.

In recent times, lenders have estimated that, on average, people moved houses every 6 or 7 years, but admit that this figure is a product of the real estate boom in which people have moved more frequently during the boom to obtain earnings than for traditional reasons of necessity. . Since there is currently no profit in moving houses, the market is likely to revert to one where people move for traditional reasons. Traditional moves take place on average once every 8 to 10 years, which will clearly reduce overall moving workloads.

The contraction will be partly offset by a contraction in the moving industry itself, as a significant number of man-and-van operations and enthusiastic hobbyists no longer see moving as an easy way to make a living and will turn to other stuff.

If property prices drop 30%, as predicted, anyone who bought a property in 2004 or earlier screams don’t have negative equity. If you consider that the average moving cycle starting today is realistically between 8 and 10 years, the vast majority of people who would like to move now and in the next few years should have a lot of equity in their property and therefore would not have no problem. at all in obtaining mortgages.

So, in theory, this means that there are people with traditional reasons for moving, wanting to move, and able to meet the lenders’ criteria. Meanwhile, homeowners are trying to come to terms with the fact that their properties are worth considerably less than they were a year ago.

The next factor to consider is that interest rates are forecast to fall to 2% or 3% over the next year which should also stimulate the housing market and economists are warning us that inflation and cost of living increases have reached their peak and are falling. Also, with the lack of activity in the moving market for the last 10 months, there must be a backlog of people wanting to move. So once things stabilize and interest rates come down, there may very well be a mini-boom in activity in the real estate market.

However, if lower interest rates and other measures the government has taken don’t revive the housing market, economists say the government would have to step in again because our economy could not sustain a prolonged stagnation in home sales.

All of the above suggests that most of the domestic moving activity in the industry in the short to medium term will be in the middle and upper end of the housing market, where a large part of the moving public is likely to have borrowed a considerable percentage to buy your property. houses and many can be mortgage free. We should also keep in mind that there is a shortage of properties, so supply and demand will inevitably play their part in price levels. The buoyant rental market should not be forgotten or ignored.

In short, while these are tough times for movers, there is a ray of light at the end of the tunnel with the prospect of marked improvement in the summer of 2009. Strong, professional movers who have made it through the last 12 months and kept their prices realistic will be better placed to pick up the coins from the credit crunch.